Yoenis Cespedes's Contract is the Epidome of the Overall Trend

It has been happening more in recent years, but Friday's announcement that Yoenis Cespedes had agreed to a 3 year, $75 million deal to remain with the New York Mets. He was traded to the Mets at the trade deadline last year, and had an ideal right-before-free-agency performance. Paced out over 162 games, his stint with the Mets would have yielded 48 HR, 125 RBI, and a .287/.337/.604/.942 slash line with a 157 OPS+.

While nobody thought he would replicate that performance, conventional wisdom would indicate that he would receive AT LEAST 5 year, $100+ million contract. FanGraphs' Dave Cameron projected him to receive a 7 year, $150 million contract. Jim Bowden, former GM of the Reds and Nationals, had a more conservative projection of 6 year, $126 million contract. While there were many credible reports that he did receive a 5 year, $100 million contract from the Nationals, he ultimately turned down that contract to return to the Mets.

Now this is no ordinary contract. A decade or two ago, you would have assumed it would be an evenly-space or slightly backloaded deal. But this contract is FRONTloaded, with $27.5 million coming in the first year. Additionally, he has the option to rejoin free agency next year when there will be a significantly weaker group of outfielder free agents. More and more, teams and players are agreeing to contracts that are less straightforward, with multiple wrinkles that effects the years and money distribution of the contract.

Max Scherzer's contract was for 7 years, $210 million but paid out in $15 million increments for 14 years. Giancarlo Stanton's ridiculous 13 year, $325 million contract is insanely backloaded with an opt-out before the bulk of the money comes. The new deal that Chris Davis signed last week will pay him $17 million for the next seven years (the duration of his playing commitment) and then $4.2 million for the following 10 years.

These contracts and many others that have been signed in recent years have been stuffed full of opt-outs, deferrals, and ultra-specific incentive clauses that have created a significant increase in fan attention towards contract details. What has caused this shift in the way contracts are structured? There are two main factors that I see here.

First, I think that Major League Baseball players and their agents are becoming craftier with maximizing their compensation. Think about the deal that David Price signed with the Red Sox this season. Price will earn $30 million annually for the first three years, after which he can opt-out. If he is as good has he has been his whole career, he will probably opt-out and be able to get a deal for around $35 million annually after the 2018 season (considering inflation and continued revenue growth). In this scenario, the Red Sox only get him for three years. The other scenario is that he underperforms, in which he won't be able to get $30 million annually on the free agent market in 2018, so he will opt-in to the rest of his contract. If this happens, the Red Sox will be stuck with an aging player who is nowhere near worth the $31.75 million they will be paying him for the next four years.

Another factor is that owners and front offices are learning more about how players age and how risky they can be. Overpaying for a player for a near decade can be disastrous for your franchise. Overpaying for only 1-3 years, though, like the Mets may possibly be doing with Cespedes, will be tough but not a terrible burden long term. Rarely do teams get bailed out like the Dodgers did for Boston in 2012. Front offices are more aware of the fact that players often age faster than they would like, and have adopted the mentality that it is better to lose a player a year before he drops off than be stuck with him for a year too long.

These opposing forces have manifested in an increased complexity of players' contracts. It's rare that both sides will agree to a straight-up, equally spaced contract if the player will be older than 30 at any point in the deal. It seems like this will only increase in future years, and I predict that opt-outs will become the default for deals of three years or longer.

An (Actually) Modest Proposal for Universal DH

For my entire existence, the Designated Hitter has been the norm, not the exception. I grew up in an American League city, went to American League games, and, for a long time, just kind of assumed that the DH was how the game was played. Playing Little League didn't change that perception, despite the lack of DH, because the pitcher was usually one of the best hitters.

As I grew up and began talking to people with a wider variety of backgrounds, I soon realized that this was not reality for a lot of baseball fans. Many (mostly older) fans longed for the days without a DH, and claimed that it is a disgrace to not have the pitcher also bat. While I do understand the nostalgia that is invoked with the NL rules, I think it is pretty naive to think that Major League Baseball would ever get rid of the DH entirely.

In fact, in recent years, the idea of a universal DH rule has been gaining a lot of momentum. It seems inevitable at this point that the DH will be coming to the National League. It definitely won't be in 2016, probably not in 2017, but 2018 or 2019 would certainly be plausible, if not likely. While it seems like a straightforward proposition, to just have a DH instead of a pitcher, I think there is a better way. Let me lay out my plan, that I think would be interesting for traditionalists and modernists alike:

Just like in the American League currently, the DH-rule would be expanded to both leagues, but with an additional wrinkle. A team can select to NOT use the DH at the beginning of the game if they so choose. While it might seem like this would never be used, I could imagine the Giants or the Diamondbacks or the Cubs or the Marlins would consider it. If this option is chosen, the team has the option of re-implementing the DH at any point in the game. So let's say Madison Bumgarner is pitching AND hitting, and he is taken out for a reliever. Bruce Bochy would be able to designate a bench player to become the DH for the pitcher, OR he could have a current fielder become the DH and a bench player would replace him in the field. Once the DH has been put back in, traditional DH substitution rules go back into effect.

Would this option ever actually be used? It's hard to say. On one hand, nobody wants to see a pitcher get hurt swinging a bat or running the bases. On the other hand, there are a handful of pitchers who are MLB-quality hitters. In 2014, Madison Bumgarner was tied for the 4th highest OPS on the Giants. For his entire NL career, Zack Greinke has been an above replacement level hitter, including 2013 where he had an oWAR of 1.3 and the highest oWAR per 600 PA on the team (10.8).

My guess is that this option would hardly ever be used. Considering that the top pitchers are now making over $30mil per season, it would be hard for a manager to justify the risk to an owner. But it certainly adds the option and keeps some of the strategy for which traditionalists have bargained.

What in hell's name is up with the Brewers?

The Milwaukee Brewers are the hottest team in baseball, and no one can stop them. After their 4-1 win over the Pirates this afternoon, their record sits at 10-2 with a current 9 game win streak. Where did this come from? They've scored 57 runs, while just letting up 29; that's almost twice as many runs scored as allowed! To what should we attribute this hot start? Let's break it down.

Hitting

Carlos Gomez

This is a man with a plan. After last year's (supposed) coming-out party, he looked ready to build off it with additional protection in the lineup. But he looks like a completely different player. Up until the beginning of this year, he had averaged less than 14 homers per 162 games. Then again, it happened to Granderson. It happened to Ellsbury. Could Gomez be next? Through twelve games in 2014, he is on pace for (an incredibly unrealistic) 54 homers. No one has hit more than that since Ryan Howard hit 58 in 2006. While his level of production is much higher than career norms, it is not unusual for someone of his profile to make a jump like this. Even more assuring is that he is actually hitting fewer balls in the air compared to his career average. Once that number comes back up, we may see even more big flies. Watch carefully, but an early MVP candidate if he can keep it up.

Jonathan Lucroy

Another guy entering his prime with nothing to lose. 2012 was Lucroy's best year, but he only got 316 at bats that year thanks to a platoon with Martin Maldonado. When Lucroy took over the full-time role last year, everyone had high expectations. Unfortunately, his production fell across the board, and was a good (but not great, as everyone was hoping) catcher. This year he is proving everyone that believed in him throughout the 2013 season right, current posting what would be career highs in batting average, on-base, and slugging. Given his age, 28, it looks like this might also be legitimate improvement and here to stay.

Ryan Braun

Not really much surprise here. He has returned to pre-scandal form. His OBP is actually pretty low, so look for him to improve a little.

Mark Reynolds, Aramis Ramirez

HERE is where it gets interesting. At 35 years old, Aramis is well over the hump, and would theoretically be worse this year. His OPS is 26 points higher and his batting average is an amazing 94 POINTS HIGHER than his career marks. This shouldn't continue, and if it does, critics everywhere will be shouting "steroids." Reynolds is a different story. Given a normal age curve, he should be in the prime of his career (he's only 3 months older than Braun). According to previous research, though, his "type," the single-dimensional slugger first-baseman, doesn't age well. This is quite a conundrum when trying to determine whether to buy or sell this early prduction. For both of these players, age seemed to be taking its toll, but maybe they both have a little left in the tank.

Pitching

For pitching, I am going to group everyone together, because it's pretty easy to see what's going on. Pitchers are simply not letting runners on base. All five starting pitchers are putting up career lows in WHIP, and that statistic only has a year-to-year correlation of .442 (FanGraphs), meaning that only 44.2% of WHIP production is repeatable AKA skill-based. For a measure that is so closely linked to success to be highly based on random chance means that WHIP will fluctuate a great deal year-to-year. Bottom line: the Brewers' pitchers are getting lucky. It's not to say that this level of production will not continue. Only that it doesn't really mean they've all made leaps forward, and you shouldn't pick up every Brewers starting pitcher in your fantasy league.

Better Late Than Never

So I guess it's been a while, hasn't it? I really haven't had the time to come on here and write, but I'm going to give it another go, and see if I can. This post is basically going to be a catch-up on what I have been doing for the past year, since I haven't been writing, and then we'll start some actual stuff next time.

Hey look! The text here looks a little different than the rest. I've been trying to learn HTML, CSS, and JavaScript in the past couple of weeks, but I will lay off it for the sake of your eyes. So far it is going alright, but it is a little intimidating. I figured I might as well try to add another weapon to my arsenal of skills.

I also went to the PBEO Job Fair at the Baseball Winter Meetings in Orlando last December. It was an amazing experience, where I got to meet so many people that are very important in the baseball world. Through there, I got a job working for a team during spring training and for the single-A team that plays there during the regular season. I plan on going this coming December when it will be in San Diego. I will be graduating around that time, so I will be looking for a full time job (so if you have a position open, let me know!).

I have been excelling in my classes this semester, and while it is not over, I think it might be my best semester yet in terms of grades. I have enjoyed my Business Intelligence and Analytics class as much, if not more than I though I would. Through that class, I have been able to finally confirm that I want to be a data analyst for a major league team. Most of the careers that I thought I wanted to do ended up being terrible fits for me, but I have finally found the perfect one (I think).

Well that's about it for now. I will try to write every day, but we all know how hard it is to do anything every day.

Game 3: Good, Not Great, Debut for Dempter

So the Red Sox finally lose a game. It took six months and a day, but the mighty Red Sox finally went down. I thought it might keep going, but then again, nothing lasts forever. Even the offseason.

What we saw was an OK Ryan Dempster with a stagnant offense. We won the previous game when letting up four runs, but the offense couldn't come through this time. I'll give props to the Yankees' pitchers last night, whose average age was 41.5 years old. I didn't know it was "Turn Back The Clock Night" at Yankee Stadium, but I guess Pettitte and Rivera had their own ideas. Lets just hope that this is a blip in the road, and the offense can keep producing at a high level for the rest of the season.

Dempster didn't really give us a clear idea of who he is going to be in Boston. Last year, with the Cubs, he was a great, bordering on elite, pitcher. When he switched over to the American League with the Rangers, he became a terrible, borderline Minor League, pitcher. Last night, he was kind of half way through. He gave up the lead early, but there was not too much bleeding after that.

Game 2: Jose Iglesias Quietly Shines Again

While it is obviously not a large sample size for the year, it looks like former "Shortstop of the Future" might be back to the current "Shortstop of the Future." After two impressive days in the field (as expected) and at the plate (very not expected), Jose Iglesias is looking like the player we thought he could possibly become.

Many thought (me included) that these first couple of days without Stephen Drew would feature stellar defense and a batting average between .050 and .100. But while it's not powerful, the contact is all there. He is 5 for 9 through two games, with four singles and a double. While it's unlikely he'll maintain a .556 batting average for the year, it looks like we may have underestimated Iglesias. As long as there is some offensive production, he is well worth it for the glove at short, and I would keep him in over a healthy Stephen Drew.

Game 1: Starting the Season off Right

The Boston Red Sox may not win the AL East this year, may not even make the playoffs, but you better start breaking out the sunglasses. "Why's that?" you may ask. Because the future looks bright. Very bright. Iglesias came through with a surprising three singles on his first opening day game. JBJ also came up big by getting on base twice, scoring once and driving in another. For an 8-9 combo with an average age of 22.5, I'd say that's alright. All in all, the Red Sox executed to perfection, and we came away with the first win on the season.