Because of certain ambiguities, reasonable people can ask the same question, look at the same data, and come to completely different conclusions. What is the meaning of "valuable"? How much was Player X assisted by PEDs? Wherever we draw certain lines, there will always be that one player just barely on the outside who plenty would argue should be on the inside. Some are arbitrary heuristics; some are critical and meaningful definitions.
In this piece, I want to bring you through my thought process on the MVP award, why I think it is the correct way at looking at the award, but also why I think it is wrong to use this thinking at other times.
The Thought Process
My thought process when looking at MVP voting (and Cy Young voting for that matter) boils down to essentially a 3-way blend of WAR (Wins Above Replacement), WPA (Win Probability Added), and narrative. When talking about which teams or players will be the best for NEXT year, I firmly believe that WAR is far and away the best evaluation method. But we're not talking about next year; we're talking about the year that has just past, so the context of production is equally important to the raw numbers. While there is very little to suggest that clutch hitting is a verifiable, repeatable skill that some possess and others lack, it still has an impact on the games won and lost.
I think the narrative aspect is important to every evaluation from the outside looking in, because at the end of the day, we are human, the players are human, and the coaches are human. Part of what makes all sports so captivating is that we create narratives and expectations, so we shouldn't make these awards a simple calculation, because that takes away the human experience.
AL MVP Race
Honorable Mentions: Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre, Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, Adam Eaton, Jackie Bradley Jr.
10. Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox/SS) AL WAR Ranking: 13th AL WPA Ranking: 13th
Xander Bogaerts burst onto the scene in 2013. He signed in 2009 for a relatively modest $400,000, didn't appear on any top 100 prospect lists for 3 years, and then suddenly exploded all the way up to starting in the 2013 World Series and top prospect status. Since then, though, it seems like his shine has faded. In 2014 he was barely a replacement level player, which caused many people to write him off, despite being 21 years old. All he's done since then is consistently improve in every area of his game.
But maybe the craziest thing is that he's only the 4th best SS in the AL under the age of 25. Think about that for a second. More to come on that below.
9. Ian Desmond (Rangers/CF) AL WAR Ranking: 15th AL WPA Ranking: 4th
It may seem like a lifetime ago, but it was only earlier this year that Ian Desmond was considered "damaged goods" by many in the industry. He had his worst or near-worst offensive season in 2015 by any measure, and was going into his age-30 season. Few believed that he could regain his 3-time silver slugger form, and all teams that were looking to invest in a veteran were already set at SS.
So he changed. In one off-season, he became a center fielder, a position that he had played a combined 8 innings as a professional. No one would mistake him for Kevin Pillar or Kevin Kiermaier, but he has more than held his own. What sets him apart, though, is his return to form at the plate. He's almost the identical offensive player he was from 2012-2014, with the added bonus of being 4th in the AL in WPA.
8. Mookie Betts (Red Sox/RF) AL WAR Ranking: 4th AL WPA Ranking: 20th
This is the first obvious point where a player's place on the "Best Player in the League" list is very different from where he is in the MVP race. 2016 Mookie Betts is 2011 Andrew McCutchen, except for Betts being a better baserunner, a better fielder, a more powerful and consistent hitter, AND a year younger. Of course, we know what McCutchen became over the next few years, and have no idea of where Betts will go, but he's off to a pretty good start. The reason he's 8th here as opposed to top-5 is purely WPA. His best performances just haven't come in the closest games. That has nothing to do with his ability going forward, but it is reality. There's a good chance he'll be higher on this list by season's end.
7. Francisco Lindor (Indians/SS) AL WAR Ranking: 6th AL WPA Ranking: 21st
Francisco Lindor has been considered a top prospect from the moment he was drafted 8th overall in 2011. This was always because of his glove, which was so obviously superior, that it was easy to see him playing in the majors. Even if he never developed into a top quality hitter, his glove would keep him in the lineup everyday. But then something clicked when he reached the majors last year. He began to hit.
He has a higher OPS in the majors at 21 and 22 years old than he did at any level of the minors. He eclipsed his minor league HR total in in fewer than half of the at bats. He's been an above average hitter since he arrived -- not above average for shortstops, above average for the entire league. Oh and everything they said about his glove? That's all true too. There's even a name for it: The Francisco Lindor Effect.
6. Carlos Correa (Astros/SS) AL WAR Ranking: 9th AL WPA Ranking: 6th
Since Correa was the sneaky, not-Mike-Trout preseason MVP pick by many pundits, 6th might seem like a let down, but I'm here to tell you that it's not. He's the youngest player on this list, a dynamic hitter with obvious room for growth still, and hasn't actually gotten any worse from last season. His slash line is almost identical to last year's, slugging is a little down but on-base is a little up, and his defense is still above average at the most valuable defensive position. He's still as close to a lock as there is to win an MVP in the next decade.
5. David Ortiz (Red Sox/DH) AL WAR Ranking: 22nd AL WPA Ranking: 3rd
At age 40, David Ortiz is redefining the meaning of "going out on top." He's currently leading the league in doubles, SLG, and OPS, three categories that he's never lead the league in his entire career. He probably would have received a few 10th-place votes even if he had only been a shell of himself, but instead he decided to have the SINGLE GREATEST OFFENSIVE SEASON EVER by a player in his age 40 season, an honor currently held by Willie Mays. And of course he's 3rd in the AL in WPA. Because he's David Ortiz. Of course.
4. Manny Machado (Orioles/SS-3B) AL WAR Ranking: 5th AL WPA Ranking: 7th
Having made his debut about a month after his 20th birthday, Machado feels like a grizzled vet even though he just turned 24. He's in his 4th full season, and he has cemented himself into the annual MVP conversation. He finished 9th and 4th in the two seasons that he hasn't missed significant time due to injury. This year he's pretty much locked in another top-5 finish. In addition to an increase in offensive output for the 5th straight season, he's been asked to play significant time at SS. He was a full time SS as an amateur and minor leaguer, but this is the first time he's been asked as a big leaguer. Get used to seeing Machado up here with Correa for a decade.
3. Jose Altuve (Astros/2B) AL WAR Ranking: 3rd AL WPA Ranking: 9th
Altuve has been easily the best offensive 2B in baseball since 2014 when he led the league in hits, average, and stolen bases. Last year he led the AL in hits and stolen bases again. But this year has been something else. His offensive production is near the top league-wide, not just among second basemen. He's once again leading the league in hits and batting average, but now he's also leading the league in on-base and OPS+, while ranking 2nd in slugging (Ortiz).
The only knock against him? He's actually a bad base runner. He's often over-aggressive on the basepaths, getting thrown out trying to stretch out hits for an extra base. That's about the only downside to his game at this point, though.
The only knock against him? He's actually a bad base runner. He's often over-aggressive on the basepaths, getting thrown out trying to stretch out hits for an extra base. That's about the only downside to his game at this point, though.
2. Josh Donaldson (Blue Jays/3B) AL WAR Ranking: 2nd AL WPA Ranking: 2nd
It seems like Josh Donaldson has been underrated since he got called up to big leagues. It took him until he was 27 years old to get a full time role. Once he got that chance, he was immediately both a top defender and hitter at 3B. The Athletics, though, didn't seem to think he was going to be that valuable going forward, as he was traded for what looked like a paltry sum at the time. The return for him looks outright laughable now. Last year he maintained top level defense and improved his offensive production, leading the league in runs, RBIs, and total bases. And this year he has shown no signs of slowing down. The only difference between now and last year is that the Blue Jays had an insane close to the season, winning 69% of their games after the trade deadline. They didn't acquire a David Price this year at the deadline, so I doubt that will happen again.
1. Mike Trout (Angels/CF) AL WAR Ranking: 1st AL WPA Ranking: 1st
What is there to say about Mike Trout that hasn't been said already? At this point, I have no idea. For his age-20 through 23 seasons, he ranks 1st, 2nd, 10th, and 7th in WAR respectively all-time. So far this season he ranks 29th all-time for age-24 seasons. With a quarter of the season to go! He's on pace for another 10+ WAR season, which would put him in the top-7 all-time for age-24 seasons. I feel like we've already begun to take him for granted. He's one of the few players that anyone ever looks at and says "he has a chance to be the greatest of all time." Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Barry Bonds are the only other recent players about whom you could begin to have that thought. Mike Trout is one of those players.
All statistics are from Fangraphs.com or Baseball-Reference.com
