Would You Rather? Indians vs AL Central All-Star Rotation Edition

Watching my Red Sox, highest scoring offense in baseball, get completely shut down by the Indians pitching staff in the ALDS got me to thinking about their rotation. The Indians were without two of their best three starting pitchers, and still limited the Red Sox to 7 total runs in the three games. Granted, a big part of that was Andrew Miller (not a starter) whose existence allowed Terry Francona to twice pull the starting pitcher without facing the heart of the Red Sox lineup a third time.

But next season, the Indians will (presumably) have their entire rotation healthy, and that should scare the crap out of American League teams, especially in the Central. They will certainly be in the conversation for Best Rotation in Baseball. So the thought experiment I wanted to perform was to compare the projected Indians rotation with a rotation of the best pitchers from the rest of their division.

2017 Projected Indians Rotation (2017 Age, 2016 ERA, 2016 FIP)
Corey Kluber (31, 3.14, 3.26)
Carlos Carrasco (30, 3.32, 3.72)
Danny Salazar (27, 3.87, 3.74)
Trevor Bauer (26, 4.26, 3.99)
Mike Clevenger (26, 5.26, 4.86)

AL Central All-Star Rotation (2017 Age, 2016 ERA, 2016 FIP)
Chris Sale (28, 3.34, 3.46)
Justin Verlander (34, 3.04, 3.48)
Jose Quintana (28, 3.20, 3.56)
Michael Fulmer (24, 3.06, 3.76)
Danny Duffy (28, 3.51, 3.83)

Of course, Bauer and Clevenger are not locks for the rotation next season, but I would say they are probably the odds-on favorites, given Josh Tomlin's August meltdown. That said, I also wouldn't be surprised if Tomlin were to be in the rotation, with either Bauer or Clevenger serving as the long man.

My first four choices for the AL Central team were fairly easy: Sale, Verlander, Quintana, Fulmer. For the last spot, it's close between Duffy, Daniel Norris, and Yordano Ventura. Ventura is immensely talented with electric stuff, and Norris was a top prospect who really started to find a grove in August/September, so I wouldn't be opposed to picking either of them. But Duffy has been the most consistent out of the group, and had moments throughout the year where he looked like a legitimate #2 starter.

THE VERDICT: I would take the AL Central All-Star Rotation. But the fact that it is as close as it is highlights the immense collection of talent that the Indians have in their rotation.

The comparison I looked at here is just for the 2017 season. But maybe a more realistic way to look at it is considering all the seasons after 2016, like a GM would. In that scenario, you might drop Verlander and Duffy from the rotation to add in Norris and maybe even Jose Berrios of the Twins. This would tip the balance even more away from the Indians-only rotation, but that is to be expected.

All stats are courtesy of Fangraphs.com.